Cooperative adaptive management of the Nile River with climate and socio-economic uncertainties

Abstract The uncertainties around the hydrological and socio-economic implications of climate change pose a challenge for Nile River system management, especially with rapidly rising demands river-system-related services political tensions between riparian countries. Cooperative adaptive management can help alleviate some these stressors tensions. Here we present planning framework infrastructure system, combining projections; hydrological, river economy-wide simulators; artificial intelligence multi-objective design machine learning algorithms. We demonstrate utility by designing cooperative policy Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam that balances transboundary economic biophysical interests Ethiopia, Sudan Egypt. This shows if three countries compromise cooperatively adaptively in managing dam, national-level resilience benefits are substantial, under projections most extreme streamflow changes.